Surfaces, Bowling Tools and Back-ups – Where the Iconic Series Will Be Won and Lost

Just 48 hours remaining.

England's opening match in Australia starts on the morning of Friday.

With the help of cricket statistics experts, we examine where the most eagerly-anticipated Ashes series in years could be decided.

It's tough to score runs, right?

Batsmen on both teams of the Ashes rivalry might be questioning why they are even planning to show up.

Much of the build-up has centred around the perceived difficulty of batting successfully, particularly for the first Test on a Perth pitch labeled a "green monster".

Regarding batting in Australia, particularly against pace bowling, no country has been harder in which to score runs over the past five years.

There are two reasons for this: pitches and balls.

Taken as a collective, the pitches produced in Australia have been shown to be the quickest, most bouncy and among the least predictable in the world.

Pace and variable bounce are the perfect recipe for tough batting.

A common belief from England's cricketing circles describes the Kookaburra ball used in this country as a useless tool for a fast bowler.

An updated model of the Kookaburra was rolled out six years ago, leading to increased seam movement.

Seam bowling is a more significant asset than swing in this country.

After the new ball's introduction, fast bowlers are averaging 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test match cricket is about solving problems.

When the ball is on top, performances of batters can be the difference, and the reverse is true.

Should this series be bowler-dominated, a batsman could have the chance to be the key factor between the two teams.

What's going on with the Australian pace attack?

For once, England have toured Australia with their pace attack mostly fit, while the hosts are the ones affected by fitness issues.

Captain Pat Cummins will miss at least the first Test with a back injury, and Josh Hazlewood is unavailable for an unknown period because of a hamstring problem.

Pat Cummins, Hazlewood and Mitchell Starc were first united as a three-pronged attack for the 2017-18 series.

From that point, they have taken together 81% of the dismissals taken by Australia pace bowlers in matches in Australia.

The Australian team have rarely had to look elsewhere because of the effectiveness and durability of the 'big three'.

When Australia have needed a back-up, Boland has been outstanding, taking 62 wickets in 14 Tests at an average under 17.

In addition to Scott Boland, other members of Australia's supporting cast have performed well.

Neser, Jhye Richardson and Pattinson all average below 30 in domestic Tests.

The most recent occasion Australia entered a home Test without Cummins and Hazlewood, and lost, was in the year 2012.

On the last two occasions they have played at home without the pair, they have triumphed by a total of 694 runs, featuring a win against England in Adelaide four years ago.

In infrequent cases Australia have had to go past their superstar pacemen, outcomes have not been affected – The tourists should take heed.

Challenging Openings

Remember when England struggled to identify an opening batsman to partner Alastair Cook?

Sir Chef changed partners more quickly than Watford go through managers.

Not anymore.

Ever since Duckett and Crawley were paired at the England opening slot at the close of 2022, no opening pair in the world has scored more runs together.

Their success as a partnership has been a reason in Zak Crawley being supported through some patchy form.

The Kent man, who memorably hit the first ball of the previous Ashes for four, has also been identified as having the game for Australian conditions.

His batting average increases when the pace increases.

By contrast, Australia's top order is in a constant state of flux, still seeking to fill the David Warner-shaped hole.

Following Warner's departure at the start of 2024, Khawaja has walked out with five different partners in 15 matches.

Yet to debut Weatherald appears likely to become the sixth in 16 Tests on Friday, giving Australia an all-left-handed opening combo.

It's not only the opening pair that has caused problems for Australia.

Marnus Labuschagne, Australia's regular number three, was moved to open for the WTC final, then left out completely.

Domestic form has brought him back, most likely returning to number three.

Across seven matches in 2025, Australia's top three have a combined average of 25.37.

Only the opening trios of Zimbabwe and West Indies have done worse.

Spin war

For two so evenly-matched teams, there is a single department where Australia are clearly stronger – spin.

Australia's Nathan Lyon, all 562 Test wickets of him, is one of the finest finger-spin bowlers to ever play.

Shoaib Bashir of England is a somewhat successful gamble, looking short of form after a broken finger, while Will Jacks is primarily a batter.

It makes sense for the home team to want Nathan Lyon at the forefront, but spin bowling has been extremely challenging in Australia for the last decade.

During that period, spinners have averaged almost 44 in this country, though Lyon's statistics holds up well compared to the struggles of visiting tweakers.

Another challenge for Lyon is actually bowling enough overs.

Remember the effectiveness of fast bowling?

It is reducing the time Lyon has with ball in hand.

During the 2017-18 series here, Lyon was bowling 50 overs per Test.

In the previous year, in five Tests against India, it was only half as many.

Test matches in Australia are lasting about 25% less time since the new Kookaburra was brought in, meaning the spinner has fewer opportunities to influence the game.

Right place, right time?

The English team have a unfortunate tendency of being defeated in an overseas Ashes before Father Christmas has loaded his sleigh.

Traditionally, the series traditionally started in Brisbane, where they have not won since the year 1986.

Recently, that has been followed by a floodlit Test in Adelaide.

England have a single victory in seven day-night matches worldwide, while the hosts have won 13 out of 14.

Then comes Perth, a venue England have visited 14 times since 1970 and won only one time, against a depleted Australia in 1978.

On this tour, the first three stops on the tour are the same, only in a different order and under altered conditions.

Perth stages an Ashes opener for the first time, not at the famous Waca – scene of many an England humbling – but the shiny new Perth Stadium.

It remains a tough assignment, though one the tourists tackle with no past burdens.

The Gabba is the location for the second Test, the day-night fixture.

The most recent occasion Australia played a day-night Test at the Brisbane, they were stunned by West Indies.

Similarly, the Aussies are now not used to playing day matches at the typical floodlit ground Adelaide.

Across two traditional Tests played in the Adelaide since 2014, Australia were defeated once, to the Indian team, in 2018.

The re-jigged schedule gives England a new opportunity at starting an away Ashes well, albeit with pitfalls.

Australia have won four of the five Tests played at Perth Stadium, though the one defeat came in the latest game – against India last year.

Every Test at the new ground has been claimed by the team batting first.

The English often complicate day-night matches, when statistics indicate the pink ball does not perform much differently from its traditional red ball.

The challenge in {day-night matches|